The Kosovo question

Albanian Kosovar leader, Veton Surroi, has warned that things could get nasty if Kosovo’s independence is held back any further. The territory (probably the best word under the circumstances) is currently under UN control, and looks likely to remain so after UN-led talks aimed at getting Kosovo a form of indepedence under EU supervision were knocked back by long-term Serbian ally Russia (Russia’s proclivity for throwing its hat in with Serbia was a key factor in triggering the First World War, just in case you’re interested).

Today the Contact Group (US, EU and Russia) is having talks before visiting Kosovo and Serbia. Serbia claims Kosovo as the cradle of Serb civilization, but the 90% Albanian-Kosovar population would rather go its own way after a short war with Serbia in 1998-1999. The war was ended with a NATO (read US) air campaign which bombed Milosevic’s men out of Kosovo, which incidentally, like Iraq, was not approved by a UN resolution.  

It’s a difficult one to call. For ninety percent of the population independence is the answer, but the remaining ten percent are seriously worried about their safety in the event that Kosovo does get its sought-after independence. And many claim that the granting of independence is simply rewarding ethnic cleansing (whilst media reports had the Serbs down as the undisputed bad guys – and Milosevic was certainly overstepping the mark, whilst the EU floundered around helplessly -, the Kosovan Liberation Army had been out looting and murdering its way through predominantly Serbian areas and driving  the locals from their villages – a fact which barely gets a mention in most news reports); and this would set a dangerous precedent, especially in other parts of the former Yugoslavia where divisions still exist within States.

Spain is dead-set against independence for Kosovo. Alberto Navarro, Spain’s Secretary of State for the EU, has expressed concern that outside powers are deciding on the fate of another country and that this will lead to another European State splitting up. But Albertito, we know that’s not what you’re really worried about. Any Spanish government support for Kosovan independence would fire up nationalists in Spain, who would charge their leaders with hypocrisy for supporting independence movements outside Spain whilst railing against them domestically. Of course, conditions in, say, Les Borges Blanques, bear little resemblance to Kosovo, and to attempt to apply the same criteria to both situations would be beyond puerile, but…

The EU could spice the deal with opening membership talks for Serbia, but there are a whole host of other issues which also block Serbian accession, such as turning over supposedly-difficult-to-find war criminals to the International Court of Justice at The Hague. In the meantime, Kosovo could unilaterally declare independence, possibly counting on the US for support, as well as several members of the EU, thereby highlighting another issue on which the EU can fail to reach a consensus on. 

Terrible twins teetering

Following the decision of one of the members of the three-party coalition in government to pull out of the cosy conservative threesome, elections could be around the corner in Poland. The weirdly named Self Defence Party (do members stick rival MPs in a headlock and say “had enough yet, sonny?” if key votes don’t go their way?) has withdrawn its two ministers from cabinet after drawn-out wrangling with the major party in the coalition over a supposed corruption scandal. This leaves the tough-sounding Law and Justice party to govern with the not-quite-as-overtly-butch Polish League of Families, who between them have 189 seats in the 460-seat lower house. If a proposed vote of no confidence goes through and elections are called, few people outside the religious right in Poland wil be sad to see the back of a government whose more bizarre decisions have included launching an investigation into Tellytubby Tinky Winky’s lifestyle for alleged homosexual leanings and sending the police onto Polish beaches to fine topless sunbathers (even if they’re lying on their fronts).     

Whilst in Poland a couple of weeks ago just about everyone I spoke to saw the government of the terrible Kaczynski twins (of which Prime Minister Jaroslaw still lives with his mum) as a regrettable mistake; however, it was generally viewed as something transitory that would pass without holding back the country’s growth and transformation. As you might guess, I wasn’t collaring uberCatholics on their way out of Mass, so it’s fair to say that the views I got on the country’s government are not representative of the population at large, but even strong opponents regarded the whole thing as an unfortunate blip rather than a serious worry. 

For the EU this is excellent news, as the difficulty of negotiating with Poland on many issues is a serious drag. Though Poland did backfoot to a certain extent at the summit on a new EU charter in June, it is still very resistent to the EU, and more specifically, Germany’s power within the Union. The Polish public, however, is much more Eurofriendly than its conservative-nutter leaders, so it is to be hoped that if early elections are called, the twins, who were recently satirized hanging off Angela Merkel’s breasts on the front cover of Polish political weekly Wprost, will get more time to put into practice the family values which they hold so dear.  

The battle for Central Asia

Central Asia, with its oil and gas resources, is fast becoming more important in geopolitical terms and references to a rerun of Kipling’s Great Game are cropping up more and more in the media. The BBC has a piece about how China is influencing the vast state of Kazakhstan, which borders the western Chinese province of Xinjiang and from whose Kashagan and Tengiz oil fields China hopes to be able to at least partially quench its thirst for oil. 

In 2001 Russia and China signed up for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – an economic and security pact with all Central Asian countries except Turkmenistan – and it’s these two powers which are most active in the region. The US also has a presence, through its oil companies and military bases in Uzbekistan which were established as a springboard for the invasion of Afghanistan. US oil companies are often forced to hold back, however, due to the diplomatic difficulties of getting the oil to markets from landlocked Central Asia; this is tricky because the most secure routes for oil and gas pipelines often go through Iran (under a US sanction regime), and ex-Soviet states are reluctant to go through Russia or regional rivals in many cases. 

So what’s the problem? Some say that all that matters is that the oil gets on to the market. If China snaps up all the oil in the region, this frees up oil from other sources, though this can create an overdependency on Middle-East oil for the US.

The problem with China

As far as the EU is concerned China is taking away any influence in the region that the Union might have had. Why? Basically because of China’s no-questions-asked attitude when setting up trade and aid deals. Whereas the EU will always make trade and aid conditional on improvements in human rights, democracy, institutions, press freedom etc., China just goes in and slaps the money on the table. Of course, China demanding democratic improvements is like Paris Hilton going around telling people to take it easy on the cocaine, and this is the problem for the EU.

Though China has finally got tough on Sudan over Darfur, this was largely a response to its own interests (the showcase 2008 Beijing Olympics taking a hit) and this is an extreme case; there is no moral element to China’s foreign policy and it doesn’t see itself as having a responsibility to change the behaviour of other States. The EU, on the other hand, has set out its stall as a defender of democracy and already gets enough stick over its relations with Russia. It’s thus unlikely to embark on relations with other states which have no interest in improving democratic accountability, and as China spreads its influence around the world, the EU is going to find itself ever more getting knocked back as it seeks to secure more influence.

Individual EU States can of course get involved in Central Asia, as Germany is doing, and France and the UK can still limit China’s global actions through their seats on the UN Security Council, but the EU as an organisation with international clout is still something of a bedroom fantacist.

More on Darfur

Anyone wishing to get more into the Darfur situation might want to check out this from the Council on Foreign Relations. Particularly interesting are the video clips in part 1 (The Grim Reality) and part 5 (The Untested Doctrine).

The Grim Reality demonstrates the human side of the conflict, which often gets lost as disputes over how many hundreds of thousand have been killed turn suffering into a statistics exercise. In The Untested Doctrine, Lee Feinstein persuasively argues in favour of action in Darfur on the part of the International Community, regardless of whether the UN gets round to approving this.

***AND the UN has just approved a 26,000-strong joint UN-AU force to be deployed before 1 January 2008 (BBC)***