The Churrómetro

The churrómetro, you may be surprised to learn, is a completely unscientific polling system based on chatting to people in bars, on trains, in the park etc. And, seeing as even Josep Ramoneda was hedging his bets on what’s going to happen in today’s Catalan elections, the predictions should not be taken too seriously.

CiU     49 seats

PSC    48 seats

ERC   17 seats

ICV   12 seats

PP     9 seats

PSC will comfortably win the popular vote (by up to 40,000 votes), but due to the distribution of their votes and the fact that rural votes are worth more under the dubious concept of ‘regional balance’, they’ll lose out to CiU in terms of seats.

CiU will take back votes they lost to ERC at the last elections, partly due to the fact that the latter persists in allowing ‘that nutter’ to represent them instead of switching to the more moderate Joan Puigcercós, but the total nationalist vote count will be slightly down. 

ICV will increase its share of the vote (from 7% in 2003 to around 13%) due to young voters outside nationalist strongholds shifting away from the previously misunderstood concept of ERC and harder-line socialists being attracted by the party’s old-school socialist commitment to public services; however, this will not be reflected in a large rise in the amount of seats won (up from 9 to 12).

The PP will drop to 9 seats (from 15 in 2003) as Ciutadans de Catalunya and Montilla draw in the Españolista vote and increase abstention amongst traditional PP voters. Whilst not many people will actually switch from PP to PSC, the fact that a Charnego is running will stop some PP voters from making the effort to get down to the polling station. The PP in Catalonia will also suffer through its association with the party at a national level, which is currently going through what could politely be called a bad patch.

If the churrómetro isn’t way off the mark, then post-election pacts will be very difficult to call. I can see CiU being forced into a pact with ERC against its better judgement, as a return to the tripartite has been effectively written off from Madrid, and José Montilla is pragmatic enough to realise that a PSC-CiU pact is completely unworkable, but I’m prepared to eat my words any time over the next few days.      

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~ by Daniel on November 1, 2006.

2 Responses to “The Churrómetro”

  1. Yeah me too (re: the eating words). I really reckon that the most likely outcome is a CiU-PSC coalition – unworkable but for PSOE vitally important in the next big election. If Carod Rovira fails to get Esquerra into government this time around, he could be out.

  2. My mate Rafa, who rakes in quite a bit of money through political bets and who over a year ago told me Montilla would be standing for election, thinks the same as you. He told me at least 8 months ago that there would be CiU-PSC pact with Antoni Castells as a compromise President. I’m sticking with the CiU-ERC line for the time being though.

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